National League · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 2–3 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 62% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 67% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | 82% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 9% | 91% | No |
The result model puts Carlisle at 66%, the draw at 19% and Worthing at 15%, from expected goals of 2.29 and 1.01.
The league sets the starting point. National League has produced over 2.5 goals in 0% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Carlisle have 0 in 0 this season, Worthing 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 0% and 0%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 0 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 60% and 0%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 24%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 64%, from expected goals of 2.29 for Carlisle and 1.01 for Worthing. Folding in 30% of that view gives 36%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 33%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Carlisle season stats · Worthing season stats · National League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.