Primera Nacional · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 65% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 65% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12% | 88% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 41% | 59% | No |
The result model puts CA Estudiantes at 36%, the draw at 30% and Deportivo Madryn at 34%, from expected goals of 1.07 and 1.02.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 29% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. CA Estudiantes have 6 in 23 this season (3 of 11 at home), Deportivo Madryn 12 in 22 (6 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 28% and 42%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 34%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 35%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 35%, from expected goals of 1.07 for CA Estudiantes and 1.02 for Deportivo Madryn. Folding in 30% of that view gives 35%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Estudiantes | 23 | 26% | 0% | 35% |
| Deportivo Madryn | 22 | 55% | 23% | 59% |
More: CA Estudiantes season stats · Deportivo Madryn season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.