K League 1 · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 0–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 55% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 0, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Bucheon FC 1995 at 59%, the draw at 25% and Gwangju FC at 16%, from expected goals of 1.58 and 0.7.
The league sets the starting point. K League 1 has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bucheon FC 1995 have 8 in 21 this season (4 of 10 at home), Gwangju FC 10 in 21 (5 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 43% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 40%, from expected goals of 1.58 for Bucheon FC 1995 and 0.7 for Gwangju FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucheon FC 1995 | 21 | 38% | 24% | 43% |
| Gwangju FC | 21 | 48% | 33% | 38% |
More: Bucheon FC 1995 season stats · Gwangju FC season stats · K League 1 table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.