Serie B · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 59% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Botafogo SP at 53%, the draw at 26% and America Mineiro at 21%, from expected goals of 1.55 and 0.89.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 40% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Botafogo SP have 8 in 20 this season (6 of 9 at home), America Mineiro 10 in 20 (5 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 45%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 44%, from expected goals of 1.55 for Botafogo SP and 0.89 for America Mineiro. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo SP | 20 | 40% | 20% | 50% |
| America Mineiro | 20 | 50% | 10% | 50% |
More: Botafogo SP season stats · America Mineiro season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.