Liga Profesional · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 1–2 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 61% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 59% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | 82% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 42% | 58% | No |
The result model puts Atletico Tucuman at 61%, the draw at 24% and Sarmiento Junin at 14%, from expected goals of 1.62 and 0.63.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Profesional has produced over 2.5 goals in 33% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Atletico Tucuman have 8 in 19 this season (2 of 9 at home), Sarmiento Junin 10 in 19 (5 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 34% and 43%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 38%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 41%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 39%, from expected goals of 1.62 for Atletico Tucuman and 0.63 for Sarmiento Junin. Folding in 30% of that view gives 41%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Tucuman | 19 | 42% | 11% | 47% |
| Sarmiento Junin | 19 | 53% | 21% | 47% |
More: Atletico Tucuman season stats · Sarmiento Junin season stats · Liga Profesional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.