Primera Nacional · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 1–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 76% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 24% | 76% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 9% | 91% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 38% | 62% | No |
The result model puts Atletico DE Rafaela at 43%, the draw at 33% and Chacarita Juniors at 23%, from expected goals of 1.02 and 0.67.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 29% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Atletico DE Rafaela have 5 in 23 this season (3 of 11 at home), Chacarita Juniors 5 in 22 (2 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 26% and 25%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 26%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 24%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 24%, from expected goals of 1.02 for Atletico DE Rafaela and 0.67 for Chacarita Juniors. Folding in 30% of that view gives 24%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico DE Rafaela | 23 | 22% | 9% | 30% |
| Chacarita Juniors | 22 | 23% | 9% | 32% |
More: Atletico DE Rafaela season stats · Chacarita Juniors season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.