Premier League · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 2–2 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 60% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 62% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Altay at 37%, the draw at 35% and Kyzyl-Zhar at 28%, from expected goals of 0.89 and 0.74.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Altay have 7 in 20 this season (3 of 10 at home), Kyzyl-Zhar 11 in 20 (3 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 41% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 22%, from expected goals of 0.89 for Altay and 0.74 for Kyzyl-Zhar. Folding in 30% of that view gives 38%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altay | 20 | 35% | 25% | 50% |
| Kyzyl-Zhar | 20 | 55% | 25% | 50% |
More: Altay season stats · Kyzyl-Zhar season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.