Primera Nacional · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 2–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 77% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 22% | 78% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 8% | 92% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 37% | 63% | No |
The result model puts Almirante Brown at 32%, the draw at 39% and Ciudad de Bolívar at 29%, from expected goals of 0.7 and 0.66.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 29% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Almirante Brown have 4 in 23 this season (2 of 12 at home), Ciudad de Bolívar 6 in 23 (2 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 23% and 26%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 25%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 16%, from expected goals of 0.7 for Almirante Brown and 0.66 for Ciudad de Bolívar. Folding in 30% of that view gives 22%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almirante Brown | 23 | 17% | 4% | 26% |
| Ciudad de Bolívar | 23 | 26% | 13% | 43% |
More: Almirante Brown season stats · Ciudad de Bolívar season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.