League One · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 54% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Airdrie United at 49%, the draw at 25% and East Kilbride at 26%, from expected goals of 1.57 and 1.07.
The league sets the starting point. League One has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Airdrie United have 0 in 1 this season, East Kilbride 1 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.57 for Airdrie United and 1.07 for East Kilbride. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airdrie United | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| East Kilbride | 1 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
More: Airdrie United season stats · East Kilbride season stats · League One table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.