Primera Clausura · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 1–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 61% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts 2 de Mayo at 58%, the draw at 23% and Olimpia at 19%, from expected goals of 1.76 and 0.89.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Clausura has produced over 2.5 goals in 42% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. 2 de Mayo have 1 in 3 this season (1 of 2 at home), Olimpia 1 in 3 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 42% and 40%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 38% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 43%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.76 for 2 de Mayo and 0.89 for Olimpia. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: 2 de Mayo season stats · Olimpia season stats · Primera Clausura table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.