Ekstraklasa · Friday, 7 August 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 2–1). Before kick-off we rated it 50% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Wisla Krakow at 36%, the draw at 27% and Wisla Plock at 37%, from expected goals of 1.26 and 1.28.
The league sets the starting point. Ekstraklasa has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Wisla Krakow have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Wisla Plock 1 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 54%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 57% and 38%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 1.26 for Wisla Krakow and 1.28 for Wisla Plock. Folding in 30% of that view gives 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisla Krakow | 2 | 100% | 50% | 100% |
| Wisla Plock | 2 | 50% | 0% | 50% |
More: Wisla Krakow season stats · Wisla Plock season stats · Ekstraklasa table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.