3. Liga · Friday, 7 August 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 58% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 64% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 13% | 87% | No |
The result model puts Waldhof Mannheim at 39%, the draw at 23% and Fortuna Düsseldorf at 38%, from expected goals of 1.64 and 1.63.
The league sets the starting point. 3. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 0% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Waldhof Mannheim have 0 in 0 this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 0% and 0%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 0 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 68% and 0%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 27%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 64%, from expected goals of 1.64 for Waldhof Mannheim and 1.63 for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Folding in 30% of that view gives 38%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 36%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waldhof Mannheim | 0 | — | — | — |
| Fortuna Düsseldorf | 0 | — | — | — |
More: Waldhof Mannheim season stats · Fortuna Düsseldorf season stats · 3. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.