Primera Clausura · Friday, 7 August 2026. Final score 1–3 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 60% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Rubio NU at 40%, the draw at 25% and Deportivo Recoleta at 35%, from expected goals of 1.49 and 1.4.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Clausura has produced over 2.5 goals in 42% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Rubio NU have 1 in 3 this season (0 of 1 at home), Deportivo Recoleta 2 in 3 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 40% and 46%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 40% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.49 for Rubio NU and 1.4 for Deportivo Recoleta. Folding in 30% of that view gives 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubio NU | 3 | 33% | 33% | 33% |
| Deportivo Recoleta | 3 | 67% | 67% | 100% |
More: Rubio NU season stats · Deportivo Recoleta season stats · Primera Clausura table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.