Liga Profesional · Friday, 7 August 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 67% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 66% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | 86% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 43% | 57% | No |
The result model puts Rosario Central at 64%, the draw at 24% and Aldosivi at 12%, from expected goals of 1.62 and 0.52.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Profesional has produced over 2.5 goals in 33% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Rosario Central have 10 in 22 this season (5 of 11 at home), Aldosivi 3 in 19 (2 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 39% and 26%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 33%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 36%, from expected goals of 1.62 for Rosario Central and 0.52 for Aldosivi. Folding in 30% of that view gives 34%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosario Central | 22 | 45% | 9% | 59% |
| Aldosivi | 19 | 16% | 11% | 42% |
More: Rosario Central season stats · Aldosivi season stats · Liga Profesional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.