Serie B · Friday, 7 August 2026. Final score 1–3 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 52% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 78% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Operario-PR at 45%, the draw at 25% and São Bernardo at 30%, from expected goals of 1.51 and 1.18.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 40% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Operario-PR have 13 in 20 this season (5 of 10 at home), São Bernardo 10 in 20 (6 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.51 for Operario-PR and 1.18 for São Bernardo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operario-PR | 20 | 65% | 20% | 55% |
| São Bernardo | 20 | 50% | 20% | 60% |
More: Operario-PR season stats · São Bernardo season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.