First League · Friday, 7 August 2026. Final score 2–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 58% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 43% | 57% | No |
The result model puts Levski Sofia at 74%, the draw at 18% and Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 8%, from expected goals of 2.04 and 0.49.
The league sets the starting point. First League has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Levski Sofia have 3 in 3 this season (2 of 2 at home), Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1 in 3 (0 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 41%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 52% and 33%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 43%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 44%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 2.04 for Levski Sofia and 0.49 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levski Sofia | 3 | 100% | 0% | 67% |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 3 | 33% | 0% | 33% |
More: Levski Sofia season stats · Lokomotiv Plovdiv season stats · First League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.