Ykkosliiga · Friday, 7 August 2026. Final score 1–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 53% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts JäPS at 42%, the draw at 30% and MP at 28%, from expected goals of 1.16 and 0.88.
The league sets the starting point. Ykkosliiga has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. JäPS have 7 in 17 this season (2 of 8 at home), MP 8 in 17 (3 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 33%, from expected goals of 1.16 for JäPS and 0.88 for MP. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: JäPS season stats · MP season stats · Ykkosliiga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.