Cymru Premier · Friday, 7 August 2026. Final score 1–3 (half-time 1–3). Before kick-off we rated it 65% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Holywell at 26%, the draw at 24% and GAP Connah S Quay FC at 49%, from expected goals of 1.13 and 1.64.
The league sets the starting point. Cymru Premier has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Holywell have 1 in 1 this season, GAP Connah S Quay FC 1 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 55% and 68%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.13 for Holywell and 1.64 for GAP Connah S Quay FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holywell | 1 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| GAP Connah S Quay FC | 1 | 100% | 0% | 100% |
More: Holywell season stats · GAP Connah S Quay FC season stats · Cymru Premier table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.