Challenge League · Friday, 7 August 2026. Final score 5–0 (half-time 3–0). Before kick-off we rated it 67% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts FC Winterthur at 48%, the draw at 22% and FC WIL 1900 at 30%, from expected goals of 1.99 and 1.56.
The league sets the starting point. Challenge League has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Winterthur have 1 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), FC WIL 1900 2 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 65%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 62% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 69%, from expected goals of 1.99 for FC Winterthur and 1.56 for FC WIL 1900. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Winterthur | 2 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| FC WIL 1900 | 2 | 100% | 50% | 100% |
More: FC Winterthur season stats · FC WIL 1900 season stats · Challenge League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.