2. Liga · Friday, 7 August 2026. Final score 3–0 (half-time 2–0). Before kick-off we rated it 51% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts FC BW Linz at 49%, the draw at 25% and Wacker Innsbruck at 27%, from expected goals of 1.62 and 1.14.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC BW Linz have 1 in 1 this season, Wacker Innsbruck 1 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 1.62 for FC BW Linz and 1.14 for Wacker Innsbruck. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC BW Linz | 1 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Wacker Innsbruck | 1 | 100% | 100% | 0% |
More: FC BW Linz season stats · Wacker Innsbruck season stats · 2. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.