Eerste Divisie · Friday, 7 August 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 2–1). Before kick-off we rated it 57% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 24% | 76% | No |
The result model puts Dordrecht at 49%, the draw at 24% and Jong Ajax at 27%, from expected goals of 1.65 and 1.16.
The league sets the starting point. Eerste Divisie has produced over 2.5 goals in 0% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Dordrecht have 0 in 0 this season, Jong Ajax 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 0% and 0%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 0 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 55% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.65 for Dordrecht and 1.16 for Jong Ajax. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Dordrecht season stats · Jong Ajax season stats · Eerste Divisie table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.