Eredivisie · Friday, 7 August 2026. Final score 0–4 (half-time 0–3). Before kick-off we rated it 57% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 67% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | 82% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 12% | 88% | No |
The result model puts Cambuur at 44%, the draw at 23% and Excelsior at 33%, from expected goals of 1.74 and 1.47.
The league sets the starting point. Eredivisie has produced over 2.5 goals in 0% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Cambuur have 0 in 0 this season, Excelsior 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 0% and 0%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 0 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 0% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 25%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 1.74 for Cambuur and 1.47 for Excelsior. Folding in 30% of that view gives 36%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 33%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Cambuur season stats · Excelsior season stats · Eredivisie table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.