Liga Profesional · Thursday, 6 August 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 0–0). Our pre-match rating was 35% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 65% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% | 85% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Union Santa Fe at 47%, the draw at 30% and Lanus at 23%, from expected goals of 1.21 and 0.74.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Profesional has produced over 2.5 goals in 33% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Union Santa Fe have 10 in 20 this season (2 of 8 at home), Lanus 6 in 19 (3 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 38% and 33%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 35%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 36%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 31%, from expected goals of 1.21 for Union Santa Fe and 0.74 for Lanus. Folding in 30% of that view gives 35%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Santa Fe | 20 | 50% | 30% | 55% |
| Lanus | 19 | 32% | 16% | 32% |
More: Union Santa Fe season stats · Lanus season stats · Liga Profesional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.