Liga Profesional · Thursday, 6 August 2026. Final score 0–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 68% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 0, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 69% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% | 85% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 43% | 57% | No |
The result model puts Tigre at 42%, the draw at 30% and Belgrano Cordoba at 29%, from expected goals of 1.16 and 0.91.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Profesional has produced over 2.5 goals in 33% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Tigre have 5 in 18 this season (2 of 8 at home), Belgrano Cordoba 8 in 22 (4 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 30% and 35%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 33%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 29%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 34%, from expected goals of 1.16 for Tigre and 0.91 for Belgrano Cordoba. Folding in 30% of that view gives 31%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigre | 18 | 28% | 22% | 56% |
| Belgrano Cordoba | 22 | 36% | 18% | 41% |
More: Tigre season stats · Belgrano Cordoba season stats · Liga Profesional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.