Primera A · Wednesday, 5 August 2026. Final score 2–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 52% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | No |
The result model puts Millonarios at 53%, the draw at 26% and Deportivo Pasto at 21%, from expected goals of 1.53 and 0.85.
The league sets the starting point. Primera A has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Millonarios have 12 in 21 this season (5 of 11 at home), Deportivo Pasto 13 in 23 (8 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 43%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 43%, from expected goals of 1.53 for Millonarios and 0.85 for Deportivo Pasto. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millonarios | 21 | 57% | 29% | 57% |
| Deportivo Pasto | 23 | 57% | 26% | 57% |
More: Millonarios season stats · Deportivo Pasto season stats · Primera A table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.