Urvalsdeild · Wednesday, 5 August 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 70% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 29% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 69% | 31% | Yes |
The result model puts FH Hafnarfjordur at 41%, the draw at 20% and KR Reykjavik at 39%, from expected goals of 2.18 and 2.13.
The league sets the starting point. Urvalsdeild has produced over 2.5 goals in 63% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FH Hafnarfjordur have 9 in 16 this season (3 of 8 at home), KR Reykjavik 15 in 16 (6 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 75%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 83%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 67%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 80%, from expected goals of 2.18 for FH Hafnarfjordur and 2.13 for KR Reykjavik. Folding in 30% of that view gives 71%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH Hafnarfjordur | 16 | 56% | 38% | 63% |
| KR Reykjavik | 16 | 94% | 94% | 88% |
More: FH Hafnarfjordur season stats · KR Reykjavik season stats · Urvalsdeild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.