Primera A · Wednesday, 5 August 2026. Final score 2–3 (half-time 0–2). Before kick-off we rated it 55% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Deportes Tolima at 48%, the draw at 28% and Independiente Medellin at 25%, from expected goals of 1.37 and 0.91.
The league sets the starting point. Primera A has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Deportes Tolima have 9 in 25 this season (5 of 13 at home), Independiente Medellin 12 in 21 (5 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 40% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 63%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 40%, from expected goals of 1.37 for Deportes Tolima and 0.91 for Independiente Medellin. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima | 25 | 36% | 24% | 48% |
| Independiente Medellin | 21 | 57% | 29% | 67% |
More: Deportes Tolima season stats · Independiente Medellin season stats · Primera A table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.