Primera Nacional · Wednesday, 5 August 2026. Final score 0–2 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 70% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 28% | 72% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 9% | 91% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 38% | 62% | No |
The result model puts Almagro at 46%, the draw at 33% and Gimnasia Y Tiro at 22%, from expected goals of 1.07 and 0.64.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 29% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Almagro have 6 in 22 this season (2 of 11 at home), Gimnasia Y Tiro 7 in 22 (5 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 27% and 33%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 30%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 20%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 29%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 25%, from expected goals of 1.07 for Almagro and 0.64 for Gimnasia Y Tiro. Folding in 30% of that view gives 28%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almagro | 22 | 27% | 9% | 36% |
| Gimnasia Y Tiro | 22 | 32% | 9% | 55% |
More: Almagro season stats · Gimnasia Y Tiro season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.