Urvalsdeild · Tuesday, 4 August 2026. Final score 1–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 66% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 34% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 66% | 34% | Yes |
The result model puts Thor Akureyri at 25%, the draw at 21% and Breidablik at 54%, from expected goals of 1.39 and 2.11.
The league sets the starting point. Urvalsdeild has produced over 2.5 goals in 63% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Thor Akureyri have 11 in 16 this season (6 of 8 at home), Breidablik 11 in 16 (5 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 66% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 1.39 for Thor Akureyri and 2.11 for Breidablik. Folding in 30% of that view gives 66%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thor Akureyri | 16 | 69% | 50% | 63% |
| Breidablik | 16 | 69% | 50% | 69% |
More: Thor Akureyri season stats · Breidablik season stats · Urvalsdeild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.