Primera A · Tuesday, 4 August 2026. Final score 3–1 (half-time 2–1). Before kick-off we rated it 64% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 65% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | 83% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | No |
The result model puts Llaneros at 45%, the draw at 29% and Fortaleza FC at 26%, from expected goals of 1.24 and 0.86.
The league sets the starting point. Primera A has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Llaneros have 4 in 21 this season (2 of 10 at home), Fortaleza FC 9 in 21 (4 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 32% and 43%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 39%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 35%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 35%, from expected goals of 1.24 for Llaneros and 0.86 for Fortaleza FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 35%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Llaneros | 21 | 19% | 10% | 48% |
| Fortaleza FC | 21 | 43% | 14% | 71% |
More: Llaneros season stats · Fortaleza FC season stats · Primera A table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.