Liga Profesional · Tuesday, 4 August 2026. Final score 1–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 74% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 75% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10% | 90% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 38% | 62% | No |
The result model puts Central Cordoba de Santiago at 30%, the draw at 37% and San Lorenzo at 33%, from expected goals of 0.73 and 0.78.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Profesional has produced over 2.5 goals in 33% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Central Cordoba de Santiago have 4 in 18 this season (3 of 9 at home), San Lorenzo 3 in 19 (0 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 30% and 22%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 27%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 28%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 19%, from expected goals of 0.73 for Central Cordoba de Santiago and 0.78 for San Lorenzo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 25%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Cordoba de Santiago | 18 | 22% | 17% | 22% |
| San Lorenzo | 19 | 16% | 11% | 37% |
More: Central Cordoba de Santiago season stats · San Lorenzo season stats · Liga Profesional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.