Damallsvenskan (W) · Monday, 3 August 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–0). Our pre-match rating was 55% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Vittsjö W at 42%, the draw at 30% and Rosengård W at 27%, from expected goals of 1.16 and 0.86.
The league sets the starting point. Damallsvenskan (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 66% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Vittsjö W have 5 in 12 this season (2 of 6 at home), Rosengård W 7 in 11 (3 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 65%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 12 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 58% and 65%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 80%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 33%, from expected goals of 1.16 for Vittsjö W and 0.86 for Rosengård W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vittsjö W | 12 | 42% | 0% | 50% |
| Rosengård W | 11 | 64% | 27% | 73% |
More: Vittsjö W season stats · Rosengård W season stats · Damallsvenskan (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.