Urvalsdeild · Monday, 3 August 2026. Final score 2–3 (half-time 1–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 71% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 29% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 71% | 29% | Yes |
The result model puts Valur Reykjavik at 52%, the draw at 20% and Stjarnan at 29%, from expected goals of 2.47 and 1.85.
The league sets the starting point. Urvalsdeild has produced over 2.5 goals in 63% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Valur Reykjavik have 11 in 16 this season (7 of 8 at home), Stjarnan 14 in 16 (7 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 65% and 73%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 16 and 16 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 67% and 70%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 67%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 67%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 81%, from expected goals of 2.47 for Valur Reykjavik and 1.85 for Stjarnan. Folding in 30% of that view gives 71%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valur Reykjavik | 16 | 69% | 50% | 69% |
| Stjarnan | 16 | 88% | 75% | 88% |
More: Valur Reykjavik season stats · Stjarnan season stats · Urvalsdeild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.