Valur Reykjavik v Stjarnan — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Urvalsdeild · Monday, 3 August 2026. Final score 2–3 (half-time 1–1). Our pre-match rating was 73% for over 2.5 goals.

Open this match in the app →

Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Valur Reykjavik at 49%, the draw at 19% and Stjarnan at 32%, from expected goals of 2.41 and 1.95.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Urvalsdeild has produced over 2.5 goals in 63% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Valur Reykjavik have 11 in 16 this season (7 of 8 at home), Stjarnan 14 in 16 (7 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 68% and 73%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 69%.

Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 70%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 81%, from expected goals of 2.41 for Valur Reykjavik and 1.95 for Stjarnan. Folding in 30% of that view gives 73%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: Valur Reykjavik season stats · Stjarnan season stats · Urvalsdeild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.