First League · Monday, 3 August 2026. Final score 1–0 (half-time 1–0). Our pre-match rating was 45% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Spartak Varna at 39%, the draw at 26% and Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 36%, from expected goals of 1.4 and 1.33.
The league sets the starting point. First League has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Spartak Varna have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 43%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 49% and 32%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 41%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 42%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.4 for Spartak Varna and 1.33 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spartak Varna | 2 | 100% | 50% | 50% |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 2 | 50% | 0% | 50% |
More: Spartak Varna season stats · Lokomotiv Plovdiv season stats · First League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.