Liga I · Monday, 3 August 2026. Final score 2–2 (half-time 0–2). Our pre-match rating was 47% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts FCSB at 63%, the draw at 23% and Farul Constanta at 14%, from expected goals of 1.76 and 0.68.
The league sets the starting point. Liga I has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FCSB have 0 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), Farul Constanta 1 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 42% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 50% and 44%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Head to head. These sides have met 9 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 56%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 44%, from expected goals of 1.76 for FCSB and 0.68 for Farul Constanta. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCSB | 2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Farul Constanta | 2 | 50% | 0% | 50% |
More: FCSB season stats · Farul Constanta season stats · Liga I table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.