Ekstraklasa · Monday, 3 August 2026. Final score 0–2 (half-time 0–0). Our pre-match rating was 50% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Cracovia Krakow at 48%, the draw at 28% and Pogon Szczecin at 25%, from expected goals of 1.37 and 0.91.
The league sets the starting point. Ekstraklasa has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Cracovia Krakow have 0 in 1 this season, Pogon Szczecin 0 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 47% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 83%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 40%, from expected goals of 1.37 for Cracovia Krakow and 0.91 for Pogon Szczecin. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cracovia Krakow | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Pogon Szczecin | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
More: Cracovia Krakow season stats · Pogon Szczecin season stats · Ekstraklasa table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.