Brasileirao (W) · Saturday, 1 August 2026. Final score 0–0 (half-time 0–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 50% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Mixto W at 38%, the draw at 29% and Atlético Mineiro W at 33%, from expected goals of 1.19 and 1.09.
The league sets the starting point. Brasileirao (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Mixto W have 7 in 13 this season (1 of 6 at home), Atlético Mineiro W 5 in 13 (3 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 40%, from expected goals of 1.19 for Mixto W and 1.09 for Atlético Mineiro W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mixto W | 13 | 54% | 23% | 46% |
| Atlético Mineiro W | 13 | 38% | 23% | 46% |
More: Mixto W season stats · Atlético Mineiro W season stats · Brasileirao (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.