Primera Nacional · Saturday, 1 August 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 0–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 33% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 67% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% | 87% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 42% | 58% | No |
The result model puts Colegiales at 51%, the draw at 30% and Gimnasia Jujuy at 18%, from expected goals of 1.26 and 0.63.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 29% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Colegiales have 6 in 21 this season (3 of 10 at home), Gimnasia Jujuy 12 in 21 (6 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 29% and 42%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 21 and 21 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 27% and 34%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 30%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 30%, from expected goals of 1.26 for Colegiales and 0.63 for Gimnasia Jujuy. Folding in 30% of that view gives 30%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 33%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colegiales | 21 | 29% | 14% | 33% |
| Gimnasia Jujuy | 21 | 57% | 19% | 62% |
More: Colegiales season stats · Gimnasia Jujuy season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.