Primera Nacional · Sunday, 26 July 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 1–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 37% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 63% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% | 85% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 42% | 58% | No |
The result model puts Racing Cordoba at 46%, the draw at 29% and San Telmo at 25%, from expected goals of 1.29 and 0.87.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 29% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Racing Cordoba have 9 in 21 this season (5 of 10 at home), San Telmo 6 in 20 (2 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 35% and 29%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 21 and 20 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 35% and 31%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 32%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 37%, from expected goals of 1.29 for Racing Cordoba and 0.87 for San Telmo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 34%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 37%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Cordoba | 21 | 43% | 10% | 43% |
| San Telmo | 20 | 30% | 20% | 35% |
More: Racing Cordoba season stats · San Telmo season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.