Primera Nacional · Saturday, 25 July 2026. Final score 1–2 (half-time 0–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 25% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 75% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 9% | 91% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 35% | 65% | No |
The result model puts San Martin Tucuman at 34%, the draw at 45% and Temperley at 21%, from expected goals of 0.64 and 0.45.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 28% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. San Martin Tucuman have 3 in 21 this season (3 of 10 at home), Temperley 5 in 21 (0 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 22% and 26%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 21 and 21 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 24% and 26%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 26%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 10%, from expected goals of 0.64 for San Martin Tucuman and 0.45 for Temperley. Folding in 30% of that view gives 21%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 25%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Martin Tucuman | 21 | 14% | 5% | 29% |
| Temperley | 21 | 24% | 14% | 38% |
More: San Martin Tucuman season stats · Temperley season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.