USL Championship · Sunday, 19 July 2026. Final score 2–2 (half-time 2–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 62% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Sporting JAX at 37%, the draw at 21% and Brooklyn at 41%, from expected goals of 1.97 and 2.07.
The league sets the starting point. USL Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sporting JAX have 12 in 16 this season (7 of 8 at home), Brooklyn 8 in 14 (6 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 77%, from expected goals of 1.97 for Sporting JAX and 2.07 for Brooklyn. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting JAX | 16 | 75% | 50% | 69% |
| Brooklyn | 14 | 57% | 29% | 43% |
More: Sporting JAX season stats · Brooklyn season stats · USL Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.