Urvalsdeild · Saturday, 18 July 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 0–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 69% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 31% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Thor Akureyri at 7%, the draw at 11% and Vikingur Reykjavik at 82%, from expected goals of 0.89 and 3.25.
The league sets the starting point. Urvalsdeild has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Thor Akureyri have 10 in 14 this season (5 of 7 at home), Vikingur Reykjavik 10 in 14 (5 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 66% and 66%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 14 and 14 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 66% and 65%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 78%, from expected goals of 0.89 for Thor Akureyri and 3.25 for Vikingur Reykjavik. Folding in 30% of that view gives 69%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thor Akureyri | 14 | 71% | 57% | 64% |
| Vikingur Reykjavik | 14 | 71% | 71% | 50% |
More: Thor Akureyri season stats · Vikingur Reykjavik season stats · Urvalsdeild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.