Serie B · Friday, 17 July 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 1–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 47% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts CRB at 53%, the draw at 23% and Nautico Recife at 24%, from expected goals of 1.87 and 1.19.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 41% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. CRB have 11 in 17 this season (5 of 8 at home), Nautico Recife 6 in 17 (4 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 38%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 17 and 17 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 43% and 38%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 41%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 1.87 for CRB and 1.19 for Nautico Recife. Folding in 30% of that view gives 46%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRB | 17 | 65% | 47% | 65% |
| Nautico Recife | 17 | 35% | 24% | 29% |
More: CRB season stats · Nautico Recife season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.