Urvalsdeild · Monday, 13 July 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 0–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 67% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 70% | 30% | Yes |
The result model puts Breidablik at 60%, the draw at 18% and Keflavik at 21%, from expected goals of 2.7 and 1.61.
The league sets the starting point. Urvalsdeild has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Breidablik have 10 in 13 this season (5 of 6 at home), Keflavik 8 in 13 (5 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 62%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 13 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 62% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 80%, from expected goals of 2.7 for Breidablik and 1.61 for Keflavik. Folding in 30% of that view gives 67%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breidablik | 13 | 77% | 62% | 77% |
| Keflavik | 13 | 62% | 46% | 85% |
More: Breidablik season stats · Keflavik season stats · Urvalsdeild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.