Ykkosliiga · Sunday, 5 July 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 1–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 52% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts MP at 22%, the draw at 26% and Haka at 52%, from expected goals of 0.9 and 1.56.
The league sets the starting point. Ykkosliiga has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. MP have 4 in 12 this season (2 of 5 at home), Haka 5 in 12 (0 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 45%, from expected goals of 0.9 for MP and 1.56 for Haka. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: MP season stats · Haka season stats · Ykkosliiga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.