Meistriliiga · Saturday, 4 July 2026. Final score 1–3 (half-time 0–2). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 68% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 32% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Trans Narva at 12%, the draw at 17% and FC Levadia Tallinn at 72%, from expected goals of 0.92 and 2.51.
The league sets the starting point. Meistriliiga has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Trans Narva have 12 in 17 this season (7 of 8 at home), FC Levadia Tallinn 13 in 18 (7 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 68% and 69%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 17 and 18 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 65% and 73%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 68%.
Head to head. These sides have met 10 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 70%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 68%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 67%, from expected goals of 0.92 for Trans Narva and 2.51 for FC Levadia Tallinn. Folding in 30% of that view gives 68%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trans Narva | 17 | 71% | 18% | 35% |
| FC Levadia Tallinn | 18 | 72% | 39% | 72% |
More: Trans Narva season stats · FC Levadia Tallinn season stats · Meistriliiga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.