Ykkosliiga · Saturday, 27 June 2026. Final score 0–2 (half-time 0–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 57% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts Haka at 42%, the draw at 25% and Kooteepee at 33%, from expected goals of 1.63 and 1.41.
The league sets the starting point. Ykkosliiga has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Haka have 5 in 11 this season (5 of 6 at home), Kooteepee 4 in 11 (2 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 1.63 for Haka and 1.41 for Kooteepee. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Haka season stats · Kooteepee season stats · Ykkosliiga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.