NWSL (W) · Saturday, 30 May 2026. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 51% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Racing Louisville W at 40%, the draw at 25% and Denver Summit W at 34%, from expected goals of 1.54 and 1.4.
The league sets the starting point. NWSL (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Racing Louisville W have 8 in 10 this season (4 of 4 at home), Denver Summit W 6 in 10 (4 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 47% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 1.54 for Racing Louisville W and 1.4 for Denver Summit W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Louisville W | 10 | 80% | 40% | 80% |
| Denver Summit W | 10 | 60% | 40% | 70% |
More: Racing Louisville W season stats · Denver Summit W season stats · NWSL (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.