Veikkausliiga · Saturday, 23 May 2026. Final score 2–0 (half-time 1–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 65% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 56% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 36% | Yes |
The result model puts Ilves at 49%, the draw at 24% and Gnistan at 28%, from expected goals of 1.81 and 1.31.
The league sets the starting point. Veikkausliiga has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ilves have 6 in 8 this season (2 of 3 at home), Gnistan 3 in 7 (0 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 69% and 65%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 66%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 66%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 1.81 for Ilves and 1.31 for Gnistan. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Ilves season stats · Gnistan season stats · Veikkausliiga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.