Urvalsdeild · Friday, 22 May 2026. Final score 1–0 (half-time 1–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 63% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | 57% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 36% | Yes |
The result model puts Keflavik at 54%, the draw at 23% and Thor Akureyri at 24%, from expected goals of 1.97 and 1.25.
The league sets the starting point. Urvalsdeild has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Keflavik have 5 in 7 this season (1 of 3 at home), Thor Akureyri 5 in 7 (4 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 1.97 for Keflavik and 1.25 for Thor Akureyri. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keflavik | 7 | 71% | 57% | 86% |
| Thor Akureyri | 7 | 71% | 43% | 43% |
More: Keflavik season stats · Thor Akureyri season stats · Urvalsdeild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.